Thursday, 16 October 2008

A trend in the past, coupled to an event in the present, could trigger bad stuff in the future

Southbeach supports the concept of "Separation" For example, a model could be separated into those parts which relate to the past, present and future. Other types of separation include, in space, by structure, by perspective, by role, etc. (The Southbeach tool gives all the options).

Here, we show a simple model of the financial crisis. Over leverage and derivative instruments in the past was a growing trend. Note the use of conjunction to link the past trend with the current trigger event, leading to actual bank failure in the present, and a potential future epression.

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