Saturday, 30 May 2009

Minimise time of intermediate result - recession

If A produces B, and B is harmful, one can start to ask questions about the situation to try to improve the situation. Questions that immediately come to mind include: is there a way to prevent A producing B, can the link between A and B be broken, can we minimize the impact of B, do we need A at all? In Southbeach 0.9, many new effects can be used to create patterns like this, patterns that represent solutions or problems. Here is an example:

The new effect is 'becomes' - a transformation. A question prompted by this model would be: find a way to shorten the time the harmful intermediate state exists, in order to avoid the consequences that might otherwise result. Using a topical example:

Otherwise, the recession may 'create' a depression.

We can add elements to this model to show the direction in which the problem solving is taking us. Here, we show the depression as a 'potential' risk (dotted line) and using a 'delay' to show there is a lag between the recession and possible depression. As that delay runs out, it becomes more and more important to get across the chasm to the new period of economic growth, i.e. to reduce the time the recession lasts:

We have also added actions to the model - illustrating the use of 'counteracts' and 'prevents'. And we could use the model to suggest even more solutions. Here - we try to head off the recession turning into a depression, and, try to accelerate the passing of the recession so there is less opportunity for it to turn into a downward spiral of depression:

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